Major sentencing overhaul aims to reduce UK prison population by nearly 10,000

Sex offenders could be subjected to chemical castration and thousands of prisoners may be released early under sweeping new sentencing reforms aimed at tackling England and Wales’ prison overcrowding crisis.

The plans, part of an independent review led by former justice secretary David Gauke, propose a “progression model” for inmates that would drastically shorten time served behind bars and shift the focus to community supervision and rehabilitation.

Key Proposals at a Glance

• Offenders on standard determinate sentences could serve only a third of their term in prison, with a third on licence and the final third unsupervised.
• Sex offenders and domestic abusers sentenced to under four years would be eligible for early release, based on sentence length alone—not offence type.
• A chemical castration programme, currently being piloted in southwest England, will be expanded to 20 prisons, with ministers considering mandatory application for eligible sex offenders.
• Short sentences would be reserved for “exceptional circumstances” amid evidence they increase reoffending rates.

Why the Reform?

The government aims to cut the prison population by 9,800 people by 2028, addressing the dire shortage of prison space and what Justice Secretary Alex Chalk has called a “failing system for lower-risk offenders.”

Prisons are operating at near-capacity, and concerns over early release of violent offenders and domestic abusers have drawn public and political scrutiny.

Chemical Castration Expansion

The controversial use of medication to suppress sexual urges among sex offenders—currently voluntary—may be rolled out nationally. The government believes this could help manage high-risk offenders both in custody and post-release.

Critics argue it risks ethical violations and should not replace rehabilitation.

Critics Warn of Public Safety Risks

Nicole Jacobs, the Domestic Abuse Commissioner for England and Wales, condemned the proposals:

“The government will be sending a clear message to domestic abusers that they can now offend with little consequence.”

Baroness Newlove, Victims Commissioner, echoed similar concerns:

“My overriding concern is whether our already stretched probation service can handle the pressure of managing more offenders outside of prison.”

Police Chiefs Demand More Resources

Chief Constable Sacha Hatchett of the National Police Chiefs Council warned:

“Out of prison should not mean out of control. We need proper powers and resources to monitor offenders in the community.”

The government has pledged a £700 million investment in the probation service and mass expansion of GPS tagging technology, turning community monitoring into a “prison outside of prison” with support from US tech firms.

Some Welcome the Review

The Howard League for Penal Reform called the review a “good start”:

“This is a vital review that focuses on reducing reoffending and preventing more victims.”

Other Proposals

• Judges may gain more flexibility to impose non-custodial punishments such as football bans or driving bans for lower-level crimes.
• A “tighter threshold” for recall will limit when offenders are returned to prison for licence breaches.
• Electronic tagging will be scaled up, with tens of thousands monitored at once.

Conclusion

The proposals mark the biggest overhaul of sentencing powers since the 1990s, seeking a balance between public protection and sustainable prison management. But backlash from victims’ groups and law enforcement suggests that implementation will face serious challenges.