There is a lot of speculation surrounding the hot weather forecast for the end of this week. But what exactly are the facts?
For many in England and Wales, the start of the week will be fine and dry, with sunny spells. However, a series of weak fronts will push into Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing cloudier skies and a chance of light rain, particularly in the northwest.
While cloud, rain, and breezy conditions persist in the northwest, it will become increasingly warm in the south as high pressure builds. This will bring settled conditions, allowing temperatures to rise day by day and become warm, if not hot, by Friday.
Temperatures will continue to rise as we go through the week, becoming well above-average by Friday when many parts of the southern half of the UK are likely to exceed 30C and may even reach 34C in some places,” said Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Dan Rudman.
“This is the first hot spell of the year, and temperatures exceeding these levels in June are unusual.” Many areas will also experience some warm nights, with overnight low temperatures in the high teens or even the low 20s.”
“The heat is caused by a combination of home-grown warming during the day due to high pressure, as well as a southerly airflow bringing some of the warm air from the continent to UK shores.”
Much of southern and central England is under a Level 2 Heat-Health Alert, while northern England is under a Level 1 Alert.
“Temperatures are forecast to reach 30C in some parts of the south on Friday,” said Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at the UK Health Security Agency. We want everyone to enjoy the hot weather safely when it arrives and be aware of good health advice for coping with warmer conditions.
“During hot weather, it is especially important to keep an eye on the most vulnerable people, such as the elderly and those with heart or lung conditions.” Keep an eye out for signs of heat exhaustion and follow our simple health advice to stay cool in the heat.”
Criteria for a Heatwave
A UK heatwave occurs when a location has at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures that meet or exceed the heatwave temperature threshold. The threshold varies by county in the United Kingdom.
Although some parts of England may meet these heat wave criteria, it appears that this period of warm weather will be brief. Milder conditions are expected to return later this weekend, with temperatures returning to around average for June as cooler air moves across the country from the northwest.
The highest temperature recorded in the UK this year is 27.5 degrees Celsius at Heathrow on May 17th. Temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius are still uncommon in June, and the highest recorded June UK temperature dates back to 1976. (records date from 1884). On June 28, 1976, 35.6 degrees Celsius was recorded at Southampton Mayflower Park. The average maximum temperature in June in the United Kingdom is 18 degrees Celsius.
There is a low risk of drought for public water supplies this summer,” said an Environment Agency spokesperson. However, additional hot, dry weather could put additional strain on some areas.
“Dry weather this spring has resulted in receding river flows and reservoir levels, particularly in central and south-western England.” Although early June rainfall has provided some relief, with river flows improving compared to the end of May, one-third of river flows remain below normal for the time of year.
“As always, we will continue to collaborate with water companies and other stakeholders to closely monitor water resources and intervene as needed.” People should use water wisely and listen to their suppliers.”
A cold front from the north adds to the uncertainty about how long the highest temperatures will last on Saturday, with areas to the southeast currently most likely to retain warmth the longest, though the extent of this is unknown.
